The Economic Forecasting Project provides quarterly, midyear and annual economic forecasts. Project personnel also supply timely analyses of current economic developments and often are involved in economic studies that help decision makers prepare for the future.

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Key Points

The 2019 Annual Economic Forecasting  Presentation will cover the following topics:

How will the partial government shutdown impact the economy?

Will Amazon lift economic growth in Virginia?

Should we be worried about the deficit?

What are the prospects for interest rate increases in 2019?

Will we have a recession in 2019?

While many of the economic indicators remain positive, there are increasing headwinds for the United States economy. First, political uncertainty has increased over the previous months and shows no signs of abating. The partial government shutdown is one sign of political paralysis and a signal the political system at the federal level cannot come to a resolution on significant problems. There are several fiscal ‘speedbumps’ in 2019, to include the expiration of the debt ceiling (Spring – Summer), a need to reauthorize the National Flood Insurance Program (May 31st), the return of sequestration level spending caps (October 1st), and the return of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) taxes (December 31st). The consequences of the partial shutdown are only continuing to grow and appear to be cascading, that is, the consequences are increasing at an increasing rate, outpacing the ability of the Administration to find ‘work arounds’ to mitigate the impact of the shutdown.

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